My day-to-day experience of meeting other players in EQ/DAOC/EQ2/Vanguard and a host of other MMOs over the years is that between the whiners who want everything but don’t want to do anything to get it and the ubers who will do whatever it takes to be the best come the huge mass of ordinary players, who trundle along at their own speed.

Those players generally set themselves reasonable, achievable goals, requiring only the help of a few friends or guildmates. Big raids involving serious commitment don’t appealto them, and neither does spending any more money playing than the cost of the box and the monthly sub.

Those players are likely to continue to support games very similar to those we see now. They are a tiny number, however, compared to the huge potential audience for free games containing a much wider range of content and theme, funded by advertisnig, microtransactions or both.

The upshot is, I don’t see much changing. Most of the games that currently exist will continue: of all the MMOs I have installed on my PC over the last few years, I can only think of one that is no longer running. There are 3d MMOs still up that have peak numbers in the hundreds. In addition to those, there will be many more games very like them and a whole new wave of much more mass-market games (MMMMOs )which will attract a huge new audience but probaly not appeal much to many current MMO players.

It’s all variety and it’s all good.

I think that a.) is the part where we differ. I think that as cookie cutter MMOs are now, there is a base that time = progression, but I also think that if you have money to spend (in a non EULA or sanctioned way) you can purchase “X” to help you advance more quickly. I think that business have already seen that profit exists in this market and that is what microtransactions will be prevalent for the next 10 years. I think they will grow to be so prevalent that one day most games will encompass some form of them, then someone (with money) will sit back and design a game that completely excludes them. It will be “new” and star spangled and marketed in that manner, and it WILL be successful because a lot of the people that play MMOs now, will see the nostalgia EQ/WOW/EQ2ish system (more time = better char) as something they would like to go back to.

Also I would like to add that I think I could spend all day looking at longbets.org. This site is awesome. I am tempted to post a longbet that “longbet.org won’t be around in 2009″ just to see if I ruffle some feathers

Background….
I’ve played MMOs for a longtime as well, starting with MUDs then getting really into it with the Legend of Kesmai (graphical sequel to IoK)

However, when I started I was well, young and poor, so I played games that were micro in every since of the word. The times were different in the late 80s early 90s, and games that today would be considered microtranactional were FREE. There was no way a small developer was going to get any money unless a larger company purchased the licensing rights then wrapped it in cellophane and tossed it in a shareware bin.

I’ll try not to digress into a rant too much. I understand that the entry into the MMO market comes with two groups those with time and those with money. In the late 80s and early 90s that line was less visible because of the high cost necessary to enter the “online computer market.” My nice new 486 computer cost just shy of $5000 and I was 14 so you can guess I didn’t buy it. Anyway, there were less people, things cost more, and everything was done by the hour… (phone, prodigy, and prostitutes)

Skip ahead to the mid/late 90s and the world explodes. The online world changed almost daily as new people entered the market. In the beginning games like Gemstone and Dragonrealm were able to charge hourly because EVERYTHING was still hourly. Once competition grew they all had to shift their pricing model. This is when your “all you can eat buffet” began, and IMHO will never end. Once the market is exposed to something it isn’t going away. It is my understanding that the only change occurring now is new people playing, so many in fact that they are able to have games on just about anything. The more “niche” the more cash, well in a way.

OK, so here is my confusion…
How does Pay vs Play (Money/Time) become “by 2013 some company is going to once again offer a buffet style game.”

a) All MMO take both Time and Money, with Time being the dominate factor.

b) By 2013 people will still be playing WoW, EQ2, and even EQ1.

So, the way I see this cycle… companies will try to form profitable niche games and when they don’t do as well as expected they will lump them together with other games and throw them in the virtual shareware bin. These niche games will always try new approaches at capturing profits. But, just as I refused to pay hourly for anything I will continue shopping in the shareware bin.

I started my life in pay to play games with Gamestorm which offered a handful of games one was LoK, then EQ, and then SOE all access which for $29 i get EQ, EQ2, Vanguard, SWG, Matrix, and Planetside.

WOW.. I think this is the longest comment I have ever left.

My original reason for posting was just to say you guys should check out http://www.longbets.org/

Anyway please forgive the spelling errors, and YES I’m writing this instead of spell checking this comment!

In response to Cuppycake’s request! This is where I play EQ, blog and scrapbook on my computer.

……

http://wifeagro.blogspot.com/2007/06/computer-rig-setup.html

Love the feel of the room, and gave me a couple of ideas.